Abstract
Importance
Despite revived interest in reforming the physician fee schedule, it is unclear how policymakers should modify more than 1000 different physician service prices to promote high-value care. One systematic approach could leverage service-level utilization patterns in full-risk contracts, which have not been previously characterized.
Objective
To compare service-level utilization patterns between health care professional organizations in full-risk contracts and those in a traditional fee-for-service (FFS) payment structure, adjusted for detailed patient-level differences, and to simulate an FFS fee schedule reform that would encourage the service patterns observed in risk-based contracts.
Design, Setting, and Participants
This retrospective cross-sectional study used Humana Medicare Advantage claims, encounter, and administrative data from 2015 to 2019 for 585 487 beneficiaries attributed to full-risk contract, with 100% downside risk for total medical spending, and 1 153 455 beneficiaries in fee-for-service contract arrangements. Data were analyzed from September 2025 to June 2026.
Main Outcomes and Measures
The primary outcome was service-specific utilization (count per beneficiary-year), adjusted for beneficiary characteristics. A secondary analysis simulated a modified Medicare FFS schedule based on estimated service-level utilization differences and a supply elasticity drawn from prior literature.
Results
Among 1271 services examined, 940 (74%) had lower adjusted utilization in the risk cohort, and 331 (26%) had higher adjusted utilization. For 700 services (55%), adjusted utilization was at least 10% less in the full-risk cohort. For 199 services (16%), adjusted utilization was at least 10% greater. Low-level office visits and laboratory services were more common in risk-based settings, whereas higher-level office visits, hospital and emergency services, and rehabilitative therapies were less common. A simulated budget-neutral reform to the Medicare fee schedule, calibrated to shift utilization levels toward risk-based benchmarks, yielded a possible 6% increase in reimbursement to general practice physicians.
Conclusion and Relevance
In this cross-sectional study, the association between risk-based contracts and service utilization varied substantially across 1271 individual services. Service-specific utilization levels in risk-based contracts may serve as a benchmark to guide reforms to fee-for-service prices.