Development of modelling and mapping methods to predict spatial distributions and abundance of estuarine and coastal fish species life‐stages in Florida

Abstract Suitability modelling and mapping methods were developed to predict spatial distributions and population abundance of fish and macroinvertebrate species in Florida estuaries and coastal zones. Habitats were mapped in Pensacola Bay, Tampa Bay, and Charlotte Harbor using data from fisheries‐independent monitoring. Starting in 1997, suitability functions from habitat suitability index models were linked to habitat grids to create seasonal maps for early‐juvenile, juvenile, and adult life‐stages. After 2003, habitat suitability models (HSM) were linked to seasonal habitat grids to create seasonal maps validated by reciprocal transfer of suitability functions between estuaries. A quantitative method was used with five factor models and models with fewer environmental factors for four species in 2005 and for 11 species by life‐stages in 2009. In 2006, suitability functions transferred from Charlotte Harbor were linked with habitat grids for Rookery Bay and Fakahatchee Bay and HSM maps produced for three time periods to test transferability to estuaries lacking long‐term monitoring. Analyses in 2012 demonstrated that HSM maps for Tampa Bay derived independently from earlier suitability functions were almost identical to HSM maps created using recent suitability functions. Salinity was the most significant environmental variable for predicting abundance in models for species life‐stages in the Peace River and Charlotte Harbor, although nutrient concentrations from upriver may have influenced species’ abundances associated with low (<5 psu) to moderate (5–10 psu) salinities. Population abundance estimates for Charlotte Harbor were derived from seasonal HSM maps created in 2019 and 2021. The 2021 paper compared changes in seasonal population numbers between Baseline and Minimum Flows associated with projected water withdrawals from the Peace River. Electronic logbooks were developed in 2001 and 2004 to collect data on shrimp fishing vessels and HSM maps for the West Florida Shelf created for 16 months in 2004–2005. Methodologies evolved as enabling technology became available.