Prediction of debris flow initiation points using high resolution DEM and GIS analysis in South Korea

Abstract This study presents a GIS analysis model that utilizes high-resolution Digital Elevation Map data to predict the initiation points of debris flow through the overlap of slope stability analysis techniques and rainfall flow analysis. The debris flow that occurred on Mount Woomyun in Seoul, South Korea in 2011 was selected as the case study for comparing and analyzing the prediction model against the actual case. In South Korea, occurrences of debris flow mostly happen during the summer monsoon season. When a substantial amount of rainfall accumulates and heavy rainfall events occur, the pore water pressure within slopes reaches saturation. Consequently, flow is initiated along “temporary streams.” In this study, areas with a combination of low slope stability and abrupt changes in velocity vectors were assumed to have the highest probability of debris flow occurrence due to the overlapping of these factors. The research model was conducted under this assumption. To evaluate the performance of the model, 3D coordinates of the model’s result point, and actual occurrence points were obtained, and a Pearson correlation analysis was conducted to compare them. With these results, R2 values of X = 0.9147, Y = 0.8625, and H = 0.8942 were obtained. These high R2 indicate a strong correlation between the model’s predictions and actual occurrences.