Climate change impacts on livestock production in Ethiopia based on evidence from the ARDL approach

Abstract Livestock production remains a key contributor to food security in developing countries, particularly in Ethiopia. However, the long-term effects of climate change on livestock production in the country remain unclear. This study investigates the impact of climate change on livestock production in Ethiopia using time series data from 1990 to 2022. Stationarity tests, including the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron tests, revealed mixed stationarity among the variables, with some being stationary at levels and others after first differencing, prompting the use of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results indicate that, in the long run, climate variables such as mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation, along with forest area, have a significant negative impact on livestock production, whereas agricultural land positively influences livestock production. In the short run, agricultural land, mean annual precipitation, and forest area exert a positive effect on livestock production, suggesting that these factors support livestock production in the immediate term. Robustness checks using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) confirm the reliability of the ARDL estimates. Policy actions should be grounded in the study’s findings. Based on the results, heat stress mitigation should be prioritized due to rising temperatures, water management should be improved to address precipitation variability, integrated crop–livestock systems should be promoted to utilize agricultural land effectively, and balanced land-use planning should be implemented to reduce the negative impact of forest expansion. Together, these evidence-based strategies can enhance livestock resilience and productivity under changing climate conditions. The findings are specific to Ethiopia and may not be generalizable to other regions. Future research should employ panel data covering additional African countries to provide a broader understanding of climate change impacts on livestock production.