Abstract
Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic left Pakistan with an economic and environmental imbalance that lasted. Lockdowns decreased the immediate risks to health, but they disrupted food supply chains, employment, and household welfare. This study has examined the periodic relative data during 2020–2024 to analyse the pandemic and the pre-pandemic period (2015–2019), as well as the post-pandemic recovery period, so as to clearly reflect the composite changes in food inflation, unemployment, poverty, and urban air quality contributing to winter smog. The values of the consumer price index (CPI) and sensitive price index (SPI) reveal that the inflation rates have increased drastically in 2022 and have been fluctuating in 2023–2024, reaching more than 25% in some months. The rate of unemployment and poverty had stabilized following the peak of the pandemic but was higher than in the situation before the pandemic, with almost 40% of the population living in poverty in 2023. Simultaneously, the state of the environmental indicators also deteriorated: the air quality index (AQI), PM2.5, PM10, and resulting winter smog have worsened in 2023–2024, that is even higher than pre pandemic. Statistical models also proved the significant differences between COVID and post-COVID years (p < 0.05) and identified the structural fragility of the two systems, i.e., economic and environmental. The results indicate that the benefits of the pandemic, in the form of temporary decreased air pollution levels and smog, are not lasting. While consistent long-term policies are required by combining both socioeconomic stabilization and environmental management to bring about sustainable resilience. Graphical abstract