Climate change impacts on agricultural trade and food security in emerging economies: case of Southern Africa

Abstract Climate change has been a significant threat to sustainable agriculture impacting trade and food security. This research investigates the impacts of climate change on agricultural trade and food security in emerging economies focusing on Southern Africa. The research employed the dynamic panel Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) using panel data for the period 2012 to 2021 obtained from a sample of 12 Southern African countries selected based on data availability. The main independent variables to the research were climate change variables (temperature and precipitation). Other control variables included were population growth, food inflation and agricultural growth. The study found significant negative effects of climate change on agriculture trade. Whilst temperature changes were found to have insignificant effects, precipitation changes were found to have significant positive effects. The research recommends concerted efforts towards climate change adaptation and mitigation for sustainable agriculture. Based on the Findings, sustainable food security and agricultural trade Southern African emerging economies may be attained through effective climate change mitigation and adaptation approaches particularly promoting climate-smart agriculture (CSA).