Cereal production amidst fertilizer usage, cereal cropland area, and farm labor in Nigeria: a novel dynamic ARDL simulation approach

Abstract Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, and the essential foods for Nigerians are cereal crops, including maize, rice, sorghum, millet, and wheat. However, their productivity is significantly affected by population pressure, poor cropland utilization, and high fertilizer costs. Against this backdrop, this study examines the relationship between cereal production, cereal cropland area, fertilizer usage, and the rural population (farm labor). The study utilizes the novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulation (DYARDLS) model and analyzes annual time series data for Nigeria from 1980 to 2021. The unit root test results suggest that the chosen variables are stationary. Furthermore, the bound test affirms that all variables are cointegrated, with a significance level of 1%. The results from the DYARDLS show that in the long run, a percentage change in rural population and cereal cropland area boosts cereal food production by 0.018% and 0.51%, respectively. Meanwhile, a 1% change in the food production index exacerbates cereal output by 0.25% in the long run and 1.06% in the short run. We also find that fertilizer consumption could improve cereal production in the short and long run, but the results are insignificant. In conclusion, we demonstrate that our study variables are the decisive determining factors of cereal productivity and cannot be disregarded in the mission to attain food security.