Abstract
Abstract The increasing number of artificial intelligence (AI) elements within military systems has introduced new forms of security dilemmas related to speed, level of secrecy, and transfer of responsibility from humans to machines. This article addresses the question of whether or how AI enabled autonomous weapons can lead to greater levels of strategic instability. Three causal mechanisms were determined by this study to potentially create destabilizing effects due to the introduction of autonomy; the first mechanism is a reduction in time available for decision making. The second mechanism involves the creation of multiple pathways of escalation. The third mechanism is the loss of human control over decisions made using autonomous weapons. While the authors do not assert that any of the previously described mechanisms have been proven empirically, they instead make the narrower assertion that current doctrine development and operational trends in both the U.S., China, and Russia suggest that an AI based security dilemma is developing. A qualitative content analysis was conducted of official military doctrine documents, national AI strategy documents, and policy documents (2016–2024). Findings indicate that all three countries are currently developing capabilities that include AI elements that are creating potential risks for compressed decision-making times, fragmented escalation pathways, and a diminished role of human oversight. Furthermore, findings indicate there is considerable variability among the countries’ doctrines for achieving strategic objectives, their tolerance for risk, and their ability to be transparent about the use of autonomous weapons. In conclusion, absent effective governance frameworks that establish limits on the use of autonomous weapons, the increasing use of autonomous weapons will likely reduce overall strategic stability; however, this conclusion should be viewed as a likely risk rather than a certain fact.