Abstract
Abstract Uttarakhand, characterized by its diverse ecological and climatic spectrum, is experiencing significant environmental changes due to shifts in land use and land cover (LULC). These changes have critical implications for the region's ability to act as a carbon sink, which is vital for mitigating climate change. This study focused on evaluating the impact of LULC changes driven by deforestation, urban expansion, and agricultural adjustments, and snow-covered areas on the carbon sequestration capabilities of Uttarakhand from 2002 to 2032. The study used GIS and remote sensing data to identify and analyze changes in LULC over a 30-year timeframe. Predictive Cellular Automate Markov Chain models were used to estimate the consequences by 2032. The analysis's findings showed notable variations in district-level carbon sequestration. For example, over 2002–2032, the carbon sequestration in Champawat exhibited an increasing trend, predicted to reach 6.835 Mg/ha by 2032, indicating better environmental management and sustainable growth. Conversely, districts like Chamoli and Bageshwar exhibited peak carbon storage in 2012, with values of 10.580 Mg/ha and 9.524 Mg/ha respectively, followed by a sharp decline, likely due to changes in land cover pattern. These trends underscore the diverse impacts of environmental changes on different areas, with some improving and others facing challenges in maintaining their carbon sequestration capacities. The need for strong, focused initiatives to control and lessen the effects of LULC changes on carbon sequestration is underlined by this study. To balance environmental sustainability with developmental needs, it is advised that Uttarakhand implement stricter carbon management policies, integrated land use planning, community engagement, and enhanced monitoring. This will strengthen ecological resilience and aid in the state's efforts to mitigate climate change.