Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Blue Mountains, Oregon, USA

In the semi-arid environment of the Blue Mountains, Oregon (USA), water is a critical resource for both ecosystems and human uses and will be affected by climate change in both the near- and long-term. Warmer temperatures will reduce snowpack and snow-dominated watersheds will transition to mixed rain and snow, while mixed rain and snow dominated watersheds will shift towards rain dominated. This will result in high flows occurring more commonly in late autumn and winter rather than spring, and lower low flows in summer, phenomena that may already be occurring in the Pacific Northwest. Higher peak flows are expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of flooding, which may increase erosion and scouring of the streambed and concurrent risks to roads, culverts, and bridges. Mapping of projected peak flow changes near roads gives an opportunity to mitigate these potential risks. Diminished snowpack and low summer flows are expected to cause a reduction in water supply for aquatic ecosystems, agriculture, municipal consumption, and livestock grazing, although this effect will not be as prominent in areas with substantial amounts of groundwater. Advanced planning could help reduce conflict among water users. Responding pro-actively to climate risks by improving current management practices, like road design and water management as highlighted here, may be among the most efficient and effective methods for adaptation. Keywords: Climate change, Runoff, Snow, Low flows, Peak flows, Forest roads, Water supply