Impacts of warming-induced precipitation phase shifts on soil erosion over the Qinghai-Tibet plateau

Study region: The study covers the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), where climate warming is shifting precipitation from solid to liquid forms, potentially altering soil erosion risk. Study focus: We estimated erosion using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, quantified phase change with the rainfall ratio to precipitation (RRP), characterized event-scale intensity by the maximum 60-min intensity (I60), and identified dominant drivers using an interpretable XGBoost-SHAP framework. New hydrological insights for the region: RRP increased across most of the QTP, but its linkage with rainfall erosivity was strongly season-dependent, with the closest coupling occurring in autumn (ρ = 0.683, p < 0.001). At the interannual scale, RRP was positively correlated with I60 (ρ = 0.710, p < 0.001), while I60 was also positively associated with rainfall erosivity (ρ = 0.647, p = 0.002), indicating a process linkage among precipitation-phase shifts, short-duration rainfall intensity, and erosive forcing. Rainfall (38.4%) and slope (27.2%) remained the primary controls on spatial erosion heterogeneity, whereas RRP (7.8%) acted as a secondary regulator. Erosion responses shifted markedly across 4500–5500 m, where vegetation buffering weakened and sensitivity to precipitation-phase variability increased. These findings improve understanding of how precipitation-phase shifts and event-scale intensity shape erosive forcing, while supporting elevation-specific soil conservation under continued warming.