Land use/land cover dynamics in an arid and semi-arid landscape: A 24-year analysis of Baringo County, Kenya (2000–2024)

Assessing land use and land cover (LULC) changes in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) is essential for promoting environmental conservation, improving ecosystem functionality, and formulating sustainable land use plans. This study examined LULC changes in Baringo County, Kenya, over a 24-year period (2000–2024). Landsat imagery from 2000, 2014, and 2024 were processed and analyzed using the random forest (RF) algorithm on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Data processing and analysis were done using ArcGIS Pro (version 3.4.0), and R software (version 4.3.2). The analysis revealed significant LULC changes, including expansions in cropland (+1196.24 km²), shrubland (+418.44 km²), built-up areas (+96.21 km²), and water features (+81.62 km²), alongside reductions in forestland (-1057.08 km²), grassland (-406.54 km²), and bareland (-328.90 km²). The observed LULC dynamics were driven by deforestation, agricultural expansion, alien species invasion, population growth, and weak policy enforcement. These LULC changes have had profound environmental, social, and economic impacts. Forest loss has diminished ecosystem services, accelerated soil erosion, and undermined climate change mitigation efforts. The proliferation of Prosopis juliflora has provided some benefits, such as soil stabilization and fuelwood, but has adversely affected biodiversity, livelihoods, and traditional agro-pastoral systems. While cropland expansion has enhanced food security, it has also exacerbated soil erosion, sedimentation, and hydrological alterations in local lakes. Furthermore, the increase in water features has led to flooding, displacing communities, damaging infrastructure, and disrupting tourism and local economies. The findings of this study highlight the urgent need for sustainable land management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of LULC changes on ecosystems and livelihoods while maximizing the positive outcomes of these dynamics in Baringo County.