Abstract
The vehicle industry is significantly improving our quality of life and promoting economic development. However, the large number of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) deserves more attention since many valuable resources are embodied in them. This work predicts ELV generation for both commercial vehicles and passenger cars in 144 countries. Our results show that while typical developed countries like Japan, Germany, and France peaked their ELV generation in the 2010s, China has experienced a dramatic increase, with nearly a 45-fold increase from 2000 to 2025, and since 2020 become the largest generator of ELVs over the US. With the rapid transition toward electric vehicles, its recycling through a circular economy is facing a new challenge and therefore requires more specific efforts. Key findings call for global efforts to improve the ELV circular economy through the full implementation of a circular economy so that both resource concerns and associated environmental impacts from ELVs can be mitigated.