The next pandemic: impact of COVID-19 in mental healthcare assistance in a nationwide epidemiological study

Background Studies have reported the worsening of psychiatric symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, few studies have evaluated the impact on the access to mental health services during COVID-19. Our aim was to analyze temporal trends and prediction of appointments held in Brazil's public health system, to compare the observed and expected number of mental healthcare appointments during the COVID-19 pandemics.Methods An ecological time-series study was performed, analyzing mental health appointments before and during the pandemic (from 2016 and 2020) from the Brazilian governmental database. The structural break in the data series was assessed using the Chow test, with the break considered in March 2020. Bayesian structural time-series models were used to estimate current average appointments and the predicted expectation if there was no pandemic.Findings Compared to the expected, between March and August 2020 about 28% less outpatient appointments in mental health were observed, totaling 471,448 individuals with suspended assistance. Group appointments and psychiatric hospitalizations were also severely impacted by the pandemic (decreased of 68% and 33%, respectively). On the other hand, mental health emergency consultations and home care increased during this period (36% and 52%, respectively).Interpretation Our findings demonstrate a dramatic change in mental health assistance during the COVID-19 pandemic, which corroborates a recent WHO survey. This phenomenon can aggravate the mental health crisis and generate a parallel pandemic that may last for a longer time than the COVID-19 pandemic.Funding This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001.