Morphological dynamics and sustainability of coastal settlements along the Tallo River, Indonesia (2009–2024)

Morphological changes in settlements reflect the spatial dynamics of the spread and growth of buildings in an area. In coastal areas, these changes often follow a linear pattern parallel to the coastline or rivers, which then develop into dense settlements due to the pressure of urbanization. Changes in the morphology of an area cannot be separated from social aspects, particularly the resilience of coastal communities. Understanding the factors influencing settlement location is crucial to understanding population dynamics and behavior. This study examines 15-year morphological changes in the Tallo coastal area, Indonesia, and factors affecting coastal community resilience. Data collection techniques include literature review, observation, questionnaire distribution, interviews, and analysis of past data using time-series imagery of the area. The research approach employs a mixed-methods approach with multitemporal spatial analysis techniques based on satellite imagery, map interpretation, and multiple linear regression analysis with robust standard error. The research results show an increase in buildings over 15 years (2009-2024) of 34.5% (249 building units). The morphological changes from 2009 to 2024 reveal a drastic transformation from a semi-rural area to a complex, densely populated residential area. The resulting morphological form resembles an octopus, with activity centers along the river, growth spreading along the river's course, and coastal access (piers). The road network also branches out informally/delta-like, with mixed land use. The most influential factor in settlement is the social factor. Furthermore, the economic and psychological factors have significant positive effects, while the interaction between social and economic factors indicates a conditional relationship influencing length of stay.