A Spatial-Econometric Analysis of Fruit Tree Diversity in Lebanon: A context-specific framework for supporting smallholder farmers

Fruit tree agrobiodiversity is critical for smallholder livelihoods and resilience in countries of the Global South, yet it is threatened by complex socio-economic and environmental pressures. Understanding the spatial drivers of this diversity is fundamental for targeted conservation. This study provides the first spatial-econometric analysis of fruit tree diversity in Lebanon and the region, combining field-based surveys of 112 farming households across six villages in three agroecological zones (AEZs) with a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model. We assessed how tree diversity (Simpson's Index) is influenced by a suite of socio-economic and environmental factors. Our results reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in diversity patterns. The GWR model identified land tenure, farm size, and income as the most powerful determinants. We found that increased private land ownership and larger farm sizes were predominantly but variably associated with lower fruit tree diversity, indicating a shift towards commercial monocultures driven by urbanization. This suggests that while fruit tree cultivation is expanding, it is reducing overall agrobiodiversity. The study demonstrates that the preservation of agrobiodiversity need to address the socio-economic realities of smallholder farmers. Our findings provide an exploratory spatial framework to inform policies that support both farmer livelihoods and the preservation of genetic resources in changing agricultural landscapes.