Abstract
Tropical forests are vital for climate regulation, biodiversity, and ecosystem services, yet their responses to long-term climate variability vary. This study examined vegetation dynamics in Kakamega Tropical Rainforest, western Kenya, using Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1984 to 2022 alongside climatic data. Results showed a significant increase in NDVI (R² = 0.755, p < 0.001), indicating canopy greening and recovery, although localized declines along forest edges suggest ongoing degradation.Mean annual temperature and wet-season rainfall frequency were identified as key drivers of interannual NDVI variability, together explaining 52% of the observed changes (R² = 0.52, p < 0.001), with both positively affecting canopy greenness. However, spatial regression indicated that NDVI variability was more influenced by forest cover, slope, population density, and temperature. Temperature had positive effects over time but negative impacts across space, illustrating complex ecological processes.Overall, Kakamega has seen vegetation recovery over the past four decades, but this recovery is uneven and sensitive to human pressures and rising temperatures, which calls for integrated satellite monitoring and climate diagnostics for adaptive forest management.