Understanding visitors’ preferences for recreation sites during wildfire- and drought-induced displacements in the Southern California national forests

The four national forests in Southern California are dominated by the chaparral biome and are visited by millions of people annually. These forest ecosystems are impacted by wildfires and drought, which coincide with the peak outdoor recreation season. This study applied a discrete choice experiment to understand visitors’ preferences for site and environmental attributes in wildfire- and drought-induced displacement scenarios. Two surveys were conducted: for a wildfire scenario and a drought scenario. Wildfires create disamenities for recreation through fire damage and smoke exposure, leading to the closure of forest areas due to safety concerns, whereas drought dries up water bodies, leading to the loss of water-based recreation opportunities. Regression model results for the wildfire survey indicate that park visitors preferred “wildland-urban” and “wildlands” viewscapes compared to “city” viewscapes in the alternative recreation sites. For the drought survey, preferences were for alternative recreation sites farther away from their homes (“1–2 h” and “>2 h” of travel time compared to “<1 h” travel time), and for “difficult” trails compared to “easy” trails. Models examining the influence of preferences for attributes across socio-demographic factors showed that visitors with “intermediate” and “committed” levels of outdoor recreation expertise preferred “moderate” and “difficult” trails in the wildfire survey, compared to “easy” trails, all relative to visitors with a “general or casual” level of outdoor expertise. In the drought survey, visitors in a group with kids preferred “wildlife” and “water” features compared to “mountain” features, relative to visitors in a group with only adults. The results can help forest managers develop effective recreation and resource management strategies by identifying key site attributes.