A Virtual Solar Wind Monitor at Mars With Uncertainty Quantification Using Gaussian Processes

Abstract Single spacecraft missions do not measure the pristine solar wind continuously because of the spacecrafts' orbital trajectory. The infrequent spatiotemporal cadence of measurement fundamentally limits conclusions about solar wind‐magnetosphere coupling throughout the solar system. At Mars, such single spacecraft missions result in limitations for assessing the solar wind's role in causing lower altitude observations, such as auroral dynamics or atmospheric loss. In this work, we detail the development of a virtual solar wind monitor from the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) mission; a single spacecraft. This virtual solar wind monitor provides a continuous estimate of the solar wind upstream from Mars with uncertainties. We specifically employ Gaussian process regression to estimate the upstream solar wind and uncertainty estimations that scale with the data sparsity of our real observations. This proxy enables continuous solar wind estimation at Mars with representative uncertainties for the majority of the time since late 2014. We conclude by discussing suggested uses of this virtual solar wind monitor for statistical studies of the Mars space environment and heliosphere.