The effects of the China–Russia gas deal on energy consumption, carbon emission, and particulate matter pollution in China

Abstract After more than two decades of negotiation, the China–Russia gas deal represents a new era of energy cooperation between China and Russia. In total, this is a win–win deal for both sides. For China, the deal will decrease energy consumption and carbon emission but will not significantly influence air quality; for Russia, it will provide a new market for its gas resources. In this study, we calculated the energy consumption, carbon emission, and particulate matter pollution (PM2.5 and PM10) in China in 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050 under four IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs 8.5, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6). We found that energy consumption and carbon emission decreased under the gas deal in RCPs 8.5, 6.0, and 4.5, although the rate of decrease slowed over time; however, in RCP 2.6, the rate of decrease of energy consumption and emission increased over time. PM2.5 and PM10 emission showed similar trends but with increasing rate, although the gas deal would mitigate air pollution in the short term. Although China’s government hopes to reduce carbon and pollutant emission under the deal, our results suggest that additional mitigation measures will be necessary to achieve this goal. Nonetheless, the reduction in carbon emission suggests that the China–Russia gas deal provides a model that other countries can follow to slow climate change.