Increased extreme precipitation challenges nitrogen load management to the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract Although the hypoxia formation in the Gulf of Mexico is predominantly driven by increased riverine nitrogen (N) export from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River basin, it remains unclear how hydroclimate extremes affect downstream N loads. Using a process-based hydro-ecological model, we reveal that over 60% of the land area of the Basin has experienced increasing extreme precipitation since 2000, and this area yields over 80% of N leaching loss across the region. Despite occurring in ~9 days year −1 , extreme precipitation events contribute ~1/3 of annual precipitation, and ~1/3 of total N yield on average. Both USGS monitoring and our modeling estimates demonstrate an approximately 30% higher annual N load in the years with extreme river flow than the long-term median. Our model suggests that N load could be reduced by up to 16% merely by modifying fertilizer application timing but increasing contribution of extreme precipitation is shown to diminish this potential.