Improved forecasts of atmospheric rivers through systematic reconnaissance, better modelling, and insights on conversion of rain to flooding

Abstract Atmospheric rivers lie behind many extreme precipitation and flood episodes in the mid-latitudes. Better forecasts of atmospheric rivers and their impacts could help with preparedness. Here we argue that a comprehensive and systematic observational campaign could help advance numerical weather prediction, and thereby provide a path towards much improved forecasts of atmospheric rivers. We envision an interdisciplinary European–American observational campaign in the North Atlantic to identify and address numerical weather prediction errors in atmospheric rivers, and the associated extratropical cyclones. Insights gained could be applied in other regions. With improved understanding of the physiography of river basins and insights into their flood response to extreme precipitation, the impacts of atmospheric rivers can also be forecast more reliably.