Adaptive fisheries responses may lead to climate maladaptation in the absence of access regulations

Abstract Adaptive fishery responses to climate-induced changes in marine fish populations may lead to fishery maladaptation. Using a stylised bio-economic model of the global fishery, we demonstrate the importance of adaptive management regimes. We show how the losses resulting from poor access regulation increase in a fishery system negatively impacted by environmental change, and demonstrate the proportional benefits provided by management strategies that control the levels and allocation of fishing effort. Indeed, under poor to nonexistent access regulation, highly adaptive actors can generate significant bio-economic losses. This might lead to foregone benefits and cascading economic and ecological losses, whereas well-designed adaptive management regimes may enable making the most of the best, and the least of the worst, climate-induced outcomes for fisheries. These findings emphasize the need for integrated assessment approaches to the impacts of climate change on fisheries, that should incorporate not only ecological responses but also the industry and management responses.