Abstract
Abstract Dynamic rupture directivity significantly impacts earthquake hazard and loss assessments; yet, it is often overlooked, leading to uncertainties. We developed high-resolution, broadband, deterministic scenarios for earthquake hazards and losses of the Zhujiangkou Fault (ZF) in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area of southern China. The calculations cover the entire physical process from fault dynamic rupture through strong ground motion propagation to quantitative loss estimations. We fully incorporate the real 3D physical fields, including fault structure, regional stress, friction conditions, inhomogeneous velocity, and topography. Results revealed higher earthquake hazards and losses triggered by the northwestern ZF segment, affecting Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Macao, and Guangzhou. The rupture directivity effect, driven by seismic wave interferences in forward propagation, leads to stark differences in hazards and losses across urban agglomerations, even under similar fault conditions. These findings help enhance the precision of earthquake risk assessments and provide practical approaches for disaster prevention.