Abstract
Abstract This study investigates a continuously deforming slope in Nanjing, China, active since 2003. We applied the Continuum-Discontinuum Element Method (CDEM), a hybrid finite-discrete framework to simulate the damage evolutions and predict potential impact zones. A seepage model incorporating hydro-mechanical coupling was used to assess the slope’s current condition. To evaluate its stability, the strength reduction method was employed, yielding a factor of safety (FOS) of 1.24 indicating that the slope is marginally stable state. The potential sliding mass is estimated at approximately 2 million cubic meters. Based on the stability analysis, a Particle Flow model was developed to simulate the potential landslide’s impact areas. The results indicate that the average velocity of sliding mass could reach 3.94 m/s, resulting in a deposit with a width of 602.9 m and a length of 831 m. 6 m, potentially abstracting the nearby national highway. Given these findings, it is recommended to implement comprehensive proactive defense measures to safeguard lives and property.