Abstract
The Belt and Road Initiative promotes international cooperation and economic growth across Eurasia but poses challenges to sustainable development, especially in food, energy, and water security. Here, we use a national-scale Bayesian network model and analyze food-energy-water nexus interactions across 39 Eurasian countries. Our findings identify that the food subsystem, particularly food consumption, is the most sensitive component within resource subsystems: food consumption has the strongest interaction in 69% of countries, and the food subsystem is the dominant resource subsystem in 46% of countries. Further, shifting crop types and optimizing planting structures are more effective strategies to manage the food-energy-water tradeoff than modifying energy systems. Socioeconomic factors have a greater impact on resource security than natural factors. However, uneven benefits may exacerbate regional inequality. International trade acts both as a source of vulnerability and a means to compensate for resource deficits. Our findings offer a comprehensive perspective and support strategic planning for integrated resource governance in Eurasia. In Eurasia, food systems, especially consumption, are the most sensitive part of the food-energy water nexus, and shifting crop types and planting is more effective than changing energy systems for improving resource security, according to an analysis of socioeconomic data.