Abstract
Efficiency of services exports has now become an important strategic priority for transition economies looking to diversify away from dependence upon commodities. This study investigates the extent to which the mechanisms underlying strategic management impact the efficiency with which services are exported by using a calibrated panel of fourteen Uzbek regions that were observed between 2015-2024. A composite Strategic Management Capability Index (SMCI)-that consists of market sensing, resource orchestration, export-process digitalization, and adaptive performance monitoring-correlates with a frontier-based efficiency score for services exports through pooled ordinary least squares estimation with heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors. The study finds that strategic management capability is by far the strongest determinant of services export efficiency, where each increase of 10 points on the SMCI raises services export efficiency by approximately 4 percentage points compared to human capital and institutional quality; furthermore, general digital infrastructure is not significant, on an independent basis. Scenario analysis of 2030 shows that comprehensive strategic reform could increase the overall national efficiency to 0.88 vs. 0.80 under inertia. The findings provide a strong basis for the assertion that it is strategic management (not only capitalizing on infrastructure) that is the most significant lever in translating a country's export potential into real actualized performance.