Abstract
Abstract Sustainable tourism development requires stable climate policies, yet the effectiveness of these policies depends on biodiversity’s carbon storage capacity, making tourism markets vulnerable to biodiversity risks. This study examines the dynamic interrelationships among biodiversity risk (BIR), climate policy uncertainty (CPU), and tourism stock markets (TSM) in China. Using a TVP-SV-BVAR framework with monthly data from January 2012 to December 2024, we quantify how these relationships evolve over time. Empirical results demonstrate that BIR significantly and negatively impacts TSM, with effects intensifying over longer horizons. CPU serves as the primary transmission channel for BIR shocks to TSM. The impact magnitude varies temporally, with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and Paris Agreement exhibiting stronger effects on TSM than other events. These findings provide essential insights for governmental policymakers and tourism market participants to help them refine climate policy strategies and ensure the stability of tourism development in the face of biodiversity risks.