Projection of productivity of cultivated crops in rain-fed areas in Egypt under climate change

Rain-fed agriculture exists in North Sinai and Marsa Matrouh in Egypt. The objective of this paper was to close the gap in our understanding on how climate would affect agricultural sustainability in rain-fed area. To implement that, integrated modeling approach was used. BISm and Yield–Stress models were used to simulate the effect of climate change on crops productivity in 2030. Furthermore, the effect of manure application to these crops was done to explore its effect on improving productivity under drought conditions. The simulation results revealed that productivity of barley and wheat will severely reduce in 2030, whereas the productivity of fruit trees will reduce with lower magnitude. Simulation of the additive effect of manure application revealed that yield losses in all the studied crops were reduced. Potential barley yield losses were reduced from 48 and 85% in North Sinai and Marsa Matrouh, respectively, to 12 and 71%. Wheat yield losses will be reduced from 62 and 90% in North Sinai and Marsa Matrouh, respectively, to 38 and 82%. Therefore, a production package should be implemented in these areas to increase its resilience to face rain fall variability in the future.