Abstract
Abstract
Climate extremes disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, yet how climatic stress translates into broader household consequences through livelihood disruption remains insufficiently understood. This study examines agricultural productivity as a potential pathway linking drought and heat stress to food insecurity and human mobility in rural Ethiopia. Two independent longitudinal household panels covering 2011–2016 and 2018-2022 are combined with high-resolution climate indicators and analysed using a combination of econometric models. Fixed-effects linear models are used to asses climate-outcome associations, finding that climatic shocks are most consistently associated with changes in crop yields, while associations with food insecurity vary across indicators and survey periods and remain limited for human mobility. Mediation analysis is used to investigate hypothesized channel of climate impacts showing agricultural productivity to partially mediates the drought–food insecurity relationship for 2011-2016, while evidence remains weaker for heat stress. This pathway is not detected in 2018–2022, despite a strong association between drought and food insecurity. No significant evidence supports a subsequent pathway from agricultural productivity through food insecurity to human mobility in either panel. Overall, these findings suggest that agricultural productivity is a potential channel of climate impacts on food insecurity, highlighting the need for targeted adaptation and mitigation in rural communities.