Climate finance, green technologies, energy transition and load capacity factor in MINT economies: assessing the environmental sustainability and validity of LCC hypothesis

Purpose This study aims to evaluate the interplay of climate finance, green technologies, and energy transition in shaping environmental sustainability within the MINT economies (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey), using the load capacity factor (LCF) as a comprehensive ecological indicator. Design/methodology/approach The study adopts the Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) approach, capturing periods from 2000 to 2021. The robustness of the findings is subsequently reinforced through the application of Common Correlated Effects Mean Group and Dynamic Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (DCCEMG) estimators. Findings The results reveal that climate finance significantly enhances the LCF, affirming its role in promoting environmental sustainability through targeted investments in renewables. Energy transition exerts a short-term negative impact on LCF, reflecting the “transitional paradox,” where reliance on energies temporarily exacerbates ecological strain. However, green technologies show no statistically significant effects, likely due to fragmented adoption in MINT economies. Lastly, the study explores the U-shaped trajectory proposed by the LCC (load capacity curve) hypothesis and finds that it is not statistically validated for MINT economies. Practical implications Climate finance should prioritize high-impact renewables over transitional fuels to accelerate long-term sustainability. Moreover, energy transition timelines must account for short-term ecological costs; for instance, MINT nations could pair gas flaring reduction with decentralized solar grids to mitigate transitional harm. Policymakers should consider implementing targeted financial instruments to channel investments into sectors with the highest environmental returns. Originality/value This study introduces pioneering contributions to climate finance and sustainability research by developing a first-of-its-kind climate finance index, which captures the pragmatic energy transition strategies of emerging economies by integrating both renewable and transitional fuel investments.