The Primitive Uncertainty Construct: Possibility, Potential Surprise, Probability and Belief; Some Experimental Evidence

This paper investigates the nature of the primitive uncertainty measure by means of a laboratory experiment that consists of four uncertain situations. It considers the related pair of possibility and potential surprise associated with George Shackle; and the supposedly related pair, belief and probability. The assessment of the relative merits of potential measures of uncertainty is based upon modal responses and χ2 tests. It is found that the dominant uncertainty concept is potential surprise, and the subjects' explanations of their choice of an uncertainty concept gave substantial weight to possibility where it is felt that there is vagueness or doubt about the outcomes in a given situation