An Econometric Model of the Circuit of Capital

The circuit of value outlined in the second volume of Marx's Capital provides a coherent framework for the characterization of macroeconomic phenomena from a classical perspective. This paper builds on Foley's (Journal of Economic Theory, 28 (1982), pp. 300–319) formal reconstruction of the circuit to derive estimable forms for its three critical mechanisms: the production, realization and recommittal lags. The entire model is then estimated for the United States over the period 1948–89 on the basis of the Shaikh and Tonak (Measuring the Wealth of Nations: The Political Economy of National Accounts, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1995) data set, and the results are used to explore a number of current controversies, including (on the basis of simulation exercises) the consequence of various deficit reduction proposals.