Abstract
Objective
To assess long-term trends in kidney cancer burden in China from 1990 to 2023 and estimate the proportion of this burden attributable to major modifiable risk factors.
Methods
This retrospective, population-based observational study used China-specific estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study (2023). All-age numbers and age-standardized rates for incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years, along with 95% uncertainty intervals, were obtained. Joinpoint regression was used to calculate the average annual percentage change by sex and age group.
Results
In 2023, there were 61,323 new kidney cancer cases and 21,784 kidney cancer-related deaths in China. Compared with 1990, the incident and prevalent cases increased by 214.48% and 251.46%, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized prevalence rate increased, whereas the age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate declined. The kidney cancer burden was higher in men than in women. The prevalence was highest in the 50–74 years age group, whereas the ≥75 years age group demonstrated the greatest relative increase. Smoking, high body mass index, and trichloroethylene exposure accounted for substantial estimated attributable kidney cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life years.
Conclusions
The absolute burden of kidney cancer in China increased substantially from 1990 to 2023, particularly among men and older adults. These findings may support age- and sex-informed prevention strategies, tobacco control, weight management, occupational exposure reduction, and improved monitoring of high-risk populations.