Predictors of posttransplant measurable residual disease negativity and impact on clinical outcomes in multiple myeloma

Abstract Measurable residual disease (MRD) is a powerful prognostic tool in multiple myeloma, but predictors of achieving MRD negativity after autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) are not well defined. We studied 814 patients who achieved at least a very good partial response after ASCT between January 2016 and January 2023 and underwent MRD assessment by next-generation flow cytometry. Overall, 387 (48%) achieved MRD negativity after ASCT. The presence of t(11;14) (odds ratio [OR], 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4–3.2; P< .01) and pretransplant response less than complete remission (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.2-3.7; P< .01) independently predicted MRD positivity. Patients who were MRD positive had inferior progression-free survival (PFS; hazard ratio [HR], 1.99; 95% CI, 1.53-2.58; P< .001) and overall survival (HR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.10-2.28; P = .009). Despite lower MRD-negative rate, 5-year PFS was similar among t(11;14) MRD positive (58%) and patients who were MRD negative (63%; P = .12). In patients who were MRD negative, the 5-year PFS was 73% in those without ≥2 HRCA compared with 55% in those with ≥2 HRCA (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.2–3.3; P = .01). In the MRD-positive cohort, 5-year PFS was 53% in patients without ≥2 HRCA vs 17% in those with ≥2 HRCA (HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.6-3.6; P< .01). In addition, higher residual clonal plasma cell burden within MRD-positive disease was associated with inferior PFS (HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.2-6.9; P = .002). This study highlights that the presence of t(11;14) independently predicts MRD positivity after ASCT, although it does not significantly affect prognosis in this subgroup.