Abstract
Background
Systemic hypertension often accompanies chronic renal failure and can accelerate its progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Adjunctive moxonidine appeared to have benefits versus adjunctive nitrendipine, in a randomised double-blind six-month trial in hypertensive patients with advanced renal failure. To understand the longer term effects and costs of moxonidine, a decision analytic model was developed and a cost-effectiveness analysis performed.Methods
A Markov model was used to extrapolate results from the trial over three years. All patients started in a non-ESRD state. After each cycle, patients with a glomerular filtration rate below 15 ml/min had progressed to an ESRD state. The cost-effectiveness analysis was based on the Dutch healthcare perspective. The main outcome measure was incremental cost per life-year gained. The percentage of patients progressing to ESRD and cumulative costs were also compared after three years. In the base case analysis, all patients with ESRD received dialysis.Results
The model predicted that after three years, 38.9% (95%CI 31.8-45.8) of patients treated with nitrendipine progressed to ESRD compared to 7.5% (95%CI 3.5-12.7) of patients treated with moxonidine. Treatment with standard antihypertensive therapy and adjunctive moxonidine was predicted to reduce the number of ESRD cases by 81% over three years compared to adjunctive nitrendipine. The cumulative costs per patient were significantly lower in the moxonidine group 9,858 euro (95% CI 5,501-16,174) than in the nitrendipine group 37,472 euro (95% CI 27,957-49,478). The model showed moxonidine to be dominant compared to nitrendipine, increasing life-years lived by 0.044 (95%CI 0.020-0.070) years and at a cost-saving of 27,615 euro (95%CI 16,894-39,583) per patient. Probabilistic analyses confirmed that the moxonidine strategy was dominant over nitrendipine in over 98.9% of cases. The cumulative 3-year costs and LYL continued to favour the moxonidine strategy in all sensitivity analyses performed.Conclusion
Treatment with standard antihypertensive therapy and adjunctive moxonidine in hypertensive patients with advanced renal failure was predicted to reduce the number of new ESRD cases over three years compared to adjunctive nitrendipine. The model showed that adjunctive moxonidine could increase life-years lived and provide long term cost savings.