Moderating effect of institutional quality on the influence of debt on investment in sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract The relationship between external debt and economic growth has been extensively studied by researchers and policymakers. However, the link between external debt and domestic investment remains an underexplored area of research. Therefore, this paper investigates the nexus between external debt and domestic investment, using institutional quality as a moderator. The sample consists of 47 sub-Saharan African countries with data spanning from 1996 to 2021. The empirical findings from conventional and robust estimators indicate that external debt negatively and significantly hampers domestic investment, while institutional quality plays a significant moderating role in this relationship. Additionally, the benefits of debt can only be realized by the SSA region when the average quality of institutions is above − 1.174 on the scale of − 2.5 to 2.5. The in-depth analysis offers insights that high-quality institutions (above a certain threshold) can help countries leverage debt for positive outcomes by promoting efficient resource allocation and attracting further investment. Thus, policymakers are advised to uphold debt management strategies and institutional reforms, such as reducing corruption, improving property rights, and strengthening the rule of law, to ensure transparency in debt use and maintain a sustainable debt burden. This will create a more attractive environment for both domestic and foreign investment. The results remain robust to alternative methodologies.