Abstract
Demographic shifts are reshaping population age structures worldwide, with implications for infectious disease dynamics. Since contact patterns, susceptibility and infectiousness often vary by age, the risk that pathogen introductions initiate a substantial outbreak depends on the population’s age distribution and associated behavioural characteristics. We develop an age-structured mathematical model to estimate the risk that a single pathogen introduction leads to sustained transmission (the probability of a major outbreak) under long-term demographic transitions, incorporating changes in age-specific contact patterns and behavioural adaptation (specifically, extended workforce participation in an ageing society). Using the Republic of Korea (projected to become the world’s oldest population by 2050) as a case study, we show that population ageing may reduce the probability of a major outbreak due to older individuals’ lower contact rates. However, this effect is attenuated for pathogens with increasing susceptibility or infectiousness with age, and by factors such as later retirement that increase the number of contacts that older individuals have. These findings demonstrate that, while outbreak risks are affected by demographic changes, they are further modified by associated behavioural responses, highlighting the importance of accounting for demographic and socio-behavioural context when assessing future infectious disease outbreak risks.