Abstract
Background
Cystic echinococcosis (CE), caused by
Echinococcus granulosus
, is a zoonotic disease with major global social and economic impacts. Research on its burden in children and adolescents remains limited. This study evaluates the global CE burden from 1990 to 2021 and projects future trends, supporting WHO NTD Roadmap goals aimed at enhancing control in 17 high-endemic countries by 2030.
Methods
Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we assessed prevalence, incidence, deaths, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs due to CE in individuals aged 0–19 at global, regional, and national levels. We computed age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). Additional analyses included joinpoint regression, inequality measures, frontier and decomposition analysis, age-period-cohort (APC) modeling, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) correlations, and future trend prediction.
Results
Over 32 years, the global CE burden declined overall, though disparities persisted. Low SDI regions had high ASPR, ASIR, and ASMR. In 2021, global ASIR was 1.12 per 100,000, ASPR was 3.71, and ASMR was 0.01. Moldova had the highest ASPR; Iceland the lowest. East Asia saw growth in ASPR and ASIR. South Sudan had the highest ASMR; Ethiopia had the highest ASDR. Females showed higher ASPR and ASIR; males had higher ASMR. A strong negative correlation was observed between SDI and health indicators. Population changes primarily influenced ASPR. Frontier analysis indicated elevated ASMR/ASDR in some low-SDI nations and rising trends in certain high SDI countries. Age-specific prevalence increased with age. Projections suggest a slow decline in CE burden over the next 25 years, though some countries will remain severely affected.
Conclusions
The global CE burden in children and adolescents decreased from 1990 to 2021, yet challenges remain, especially in low-SDI regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia. The Slope Index of Inequality (SII) for ASPR narrowed from -2.597 to -1.087, reflecting reduced but persistent disparity. Rising ASMR and ASDR in high SDI countries like Germany and Norway underscore the need for targeted interventions. The negative SDI health correlation highlights socioeconomic influences. Prevention should focus on females in low-SDI areas, while improved medical care is needed for males facing higher mortality. Although a continued decline is projected, sustained efforts are essential in high burden countries. These findings, supported by a improving concentration index (CI) for ASPR (-0.358 to -0.218), reveal critical health inequalities and inform public health strategies.