Abstract
Ongoing climate change substantially alters snowfall patterns with severe but diverging consequences for global ski areas. A global assessment as well as the investigation of potential implications for mountain ecosystems is currently lacking. We quantify future trends in natural snow cover days under different climate change scenarios until 2100 in seven major global skiing regions and discuss implications for mountainous biodiversity by analysing how natural snow cover days relate to regional human population density. Within all major skiing regions, snow cover days are projected to decrease substantially under every assessed climate change scenario. Thirteen percent of all current ski areas are projected to completely lose natural annual snow cover and one fifth will experience a reduction of more than 50% by 2071–2100 relative to historic baselines. Future skiable areas will concentrate in less populated areas, towards continental regions and inner parts of the mountain ranges. As skiable areas will be located at greater distances to highly populated areas in the future, we expect an expansion of infrastructure and increasing intervening actions (i.e., artificial snowmaking, slope grooming) to prolong snow duration. Our results are concerning for both the recreational and economic value of skiing as well as for mountain biodiversity since vulnerable high-altitude species might be threatened by space reductions with ski area expansion.