A high density of ultra-processed food, alcohol & tobacco retail stores, and social inequalities are associated with higher mortality rates of non-communicable diseases in Mexican adults: 2005 to 2021

Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading causes of mortality in Mexico. Factors contributing to NCDs-related deaths may vary across small geographic areas such as municipalities. We aimed to predict municipal-level factors associated with NCD mortality in Mexican adults from 2005 to 2021 using the small-area analysis (SSA) approach. Methods We gathered data on population sociodemographic, access to healthcare services, and mortality records at the municipal-level from census and public institutions from 2005 to 2021. We identified municipal predictors of NCDs mortality rates (MR) using negative binomial regression models. Results A total of 584,052 observations of Mexican adults were analyzed. The national expected NCDs MR per 100,000 inhabitants was 210.7 (95%CI: 196.1–226.7) in 2005 and increased to 322.4 (95%CI: 300.3–346.4) by 2021. Predictors of NCDs mortality (quintile 5 vs. quintile 1) included; indigeneity (IRR = 1.15, 95%CI: 1.12–1.19), poverty (IRR = 1.14, 95%CI: 1.13–1.15), affiliation with Mexican Social Security Institute (IRR = 1.11, 95%CI: 1.09–1.14), households with television (IRR = 1.14, 95%CI: 1.11–1.17), and high density of ultra-processed food, alcohol & tobacco retail stores (IRR = 1.15, 95%CI: 1.13–1.17). The greatest increases in MR were observed in municipalities from Oaxaca (>200% increments). Conclusion There was an overall increase in NCDs MR from 2005 to 2021, with a significant geographic variation among Mexican municipalities. The results of this study highlight the importance of identifying priority areas in the country that urgently require public policies focused on local factors associated with deaths from NCDs, such as the regulation of the ultra-processed food, alcohol & tobacco retail stores, and efforts to reduce social inequalities.