Characterization and individual-level prediction of cognitive state in the first year after ‘mild’ stroke

Background Mild stroke affects more than half the stroke population, yet there is limited evidence characterizing cognition over time in this population, especially with predictive approaches applicable at the individual-level. We aimed to identify patterns of recovery and the best combination of demographic, clinical, and lifestyle factors predicting individual-level cognitive state at 3- and 12-months after mild stroke. Methods In this prospective cohort study, the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) was administered at 3–7 days, 3- and 12-months post-stroke. Raw changes in MoCA and impairment rates (defined as MoCA Results Participants’ (n = 119) MoCA scores improved from baseline to 3-months (pp = 0.010). Cognitive impairment rates decreased significantly from baseline to 3-months (pp = 0.168). Nine distinct trajectory clusters were identified. Clinical characteristics between clusters at each time-point varied in cognitive outcomes but not in clinical and/or activity participation outcomes. Cognitive performance at 3- and 12-months was best predicted by younger age, higher physical activity levels, and left-hemisphere lesion side. Conclusion More than half of mild-stroke survivors are at risk of cognitive decline one year after stroke, even when preceded by a significantly improving pattern in the first 3-months of recovery. Physical activity was the only modifiable factor independently associated with cognitive recovery. Individual-level prediction methods may inform the timing and personalized application of future interventions to maximize cognitive recovery post-stroke.