Enhancing wind erosion risk assessment through remote sensing techniques

Preventing wind erosion and dust storms has always been a major concern in arid and semi-arid areas because of their negative effects on the environment. This study aims to utilize remote sensing and machine learning techniques to model, monitor, and predict the risk of wind erosion in Northeast Iran. Through an examination of relevant studies, a comprehensive review was conducted, leading to the identification of eight remote sensing indicators that exhibited the highest correlation with field data. These indicators were subsequently employed to model the risk of wind erosion in the study area. Various methods including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) were employed to carry out the modeling process. The final method utilized a weighted average of the model, and the SDM statistical package was used to combine different approaches to decrease uncertainty when modeling and monitoring wind erosion in the area. The modeling results indicated that in 2008, the RF model performed the best (AUC = 0.92, TSS = 0.82, and Kappa = 0.96), while in 2023, the GBM model showed superior performance (AUC = 0.95, TSS = 0.79, and Kappa = 0.95). Therefore, the utilization of an ensemble model emerged as an effective approach to reduce uncertainty during the modeling process. By employing the ensemble model, the outcomes obtained accurately depicted an elevated intensity of wind erosion in the northeastern regions of the study area by 2023. Furthermore, considering the climatic scenarios and projected land use changes, it is anticipated that wind erosion intensity will experience a 23% increase in the central and southern parts of the study area by 2038. By taking into account the reliable results of the ensemble model, which offers reduced uncertainty, it becomes feasible to implement effective planning, optimal management, and appropriate measures to mitigate the progression of wind erosion.