Sensitivity analysis of annual energy production and associated economic losses due to external wake effects on offshore wind clusters: A case study of the Shinan offshore wind cluster in southwest sea of Korea

This study investigates the quantitative effects of external wake interactions and inter-farm spacing within a large-scale offshore wind cluster, focusing on the Shinan Cluster in Korea. As the country moves forward with government-led site development under the forthcoming Offshore Wind Special Act, the spatial clustering of multiple wind farms raises concerns about potential energy yield reductions and associated revenue losses caused by external wake effects. Using energy yield assessment simulations, a hypothetical 390 MW offshore wind farm was modelled adjacent to the Shinan offshore wind cluster. A sensitivity analysis was conducted across 12 scenarios by varying cluster completion levels (30%, 60%, and 100%) and inter-farm spacing distances (0 km, 1 km, 3 km, and 5 km). The results indicate that increasing the spacing between farms from 0 km to 3 km and 5 km reduced external wake losses from 8.0% to 5.2% and 4.3%, respectively, compared to the no-spacing case. For project developers, this translates into reductions in annual electricity revenue losses of approximately KRW 15.8 billion (3 km) and KRW 13.0 billion (5 km), based on a 2.5 REC scenario. These findings provide empirical evidence supporting the establishment of minimum inter-farm spacing guidelines to mitigate revenue loss and potential stakeholder conflicts within designated offshore wind cluster zones. The study offers actionable insights for policymakers and developers to promote sustainable offshore wind cluster design under Korea’s evolving regulatory framework.