Abstract
Promoting manure-based fertilizer substitution is important for nutrient recycling
and agricultural carbon mitigation under China’s Rural Revitalization Strategy and dual-carbon agenda.
Using provincial panel data for 31 provinces in mainland China from 2017 to 2024, this study develops
an integrated framework to estimate livestock manure resources, manure-borne nutrient supply,
and the technical carbon-mitigation potential of mineral fertilizer substitution. Dagum Gini
decomposition, global Moran’s I, and a Spatial Durbin Model are used to examine inequality,
spatial dependence, and driving factors. Results show that national manure resources and nutrient
supply followed a decline–rebound pattern, while carbon-mitigation potential increased after 2019
and remained relatively high. Interprovincial inequality was moderate to high, and mitigation outcomes
exhibited significant positive spatial dependence. Manure resource intensity was the main local driver
of mitigation, whereas the effects of fertilizer intensity and mechanization showed clear regional
heterogeneity. By linking nutrient cycling with carbon mitigation in a spatial framework, this study
provides evidence for differentiated regional policies on manure resource utilization in China.