Abstract
Water resources in the semi-arid agricultural landscapes of Northern Kazakhstan are under intense stress from the climatic, ecological, socioeconomic issues, which increase the human–wildlife confrontations. Within this project the Extended Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) was developed to assess farm holdings’ water-related vulnerability and climate change adaptive capacity for the Saiga Antelope (Saiga tatarica) recovery. The framework integrates 13 components and 62 indicators covering climate and natural hazards, human–wildlife conflict, water resources issues, natural and land resources, agriculture, infrastructure, socioeconomic conditions, and livelihood strategies. The assessment combines hydroclimatic data from 1961–2024, field surveys, questionnaires, official statistics, spatial information, and saiga migration data from Naurzum and Auliekol Districts of Kostanay Region. Overall LVI values were 0.485 in Naurzum and 0.431 in Auliekol. Natural Resources availability indexes showed the highest component score (1.000 in both districts), followed by Human–Wildlife Conflict (0.862 and 0.770), next Climate Change and Natural Disasters (0.741 in both). Climate analysis revealed significant increase by warming (0.28 °C per decade) without a significant long-term precipitation trend. The project findings demonstrate that water resources availability stress is a cross-cutting dimension of rural vulnerability, while saiga recovery creates an additional pathway of socio-ecological complexities y through competition for water, pasture, and agricultural lands.