The Political Economy of Gas as a Transition Fuel in Mozambique’s Crisis-Shaped Energy Future

Abstract Background Natural gas is commonly presented as a transition fuel capable of reconciling decarbonisation, energy security and development in lower-income countries. This proposition is less secure where public authority and long-term planning are repeatedly reorganised by crisis. Focusing on Mozambique, this paper argues that compound crises can transform gas from a temporary bridge into a stabilisation asset, producing transition lock-in through fiscal, institutional and discursive mechanisms. Results The argument is developed through a qualitative, interpretive analysis of 159 policy documents, multilateral reports, corporate texts and civil-society publications issued between 2015 and 2025. A theory-informed coding rubric guides comparison of how these documents construct necessity, treat alternative pathways and represent the durability of gas-related arrangements. The findings show that fiscal expectations, crisis-conditioned institutions and narratives of stability and development reinforce one another, while lower-carbon alternatives are frequently deferred rather than rejected outright. Conclusions A post-coding review of developments in late 2025 and early 2026 further shows that renewed investment and project resumption proceeded amid continuing security and fiscal pressures. The paper contributes to energy-transition scholarship by conceptualising crisis as a constitutive governance condition that compresses policy horizons, redistributes authority and raises the cost of reversing extractive commitments.