Abstract
Abstract
This study examines the effects of climate change on beans production in Rwanda between 2003 and 2025, focusing on yield dynamics, regional disparities, and economic losses. Beans (Phaseolus vulgaris), the foundational staple food and primary source of protein for Rwandans, have become increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events, particularly droughts, which are recurrent risks, especially in the Eastern Province.The analysis highlights a marked decline in bean yields, specifically around the key simulated drought years of 2005, 2007, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2022, 2024, and 2025. Furthermore, a contraction of the cultivated area is strongly observed in the most recent periods, especially following the severe drought events in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. The results show that high-altitude districts in the Western and Northern Provinces display greater resilience, while districts in the Eastern and Southeastern dry lowlands (e.g., Bugesera, Kayonza, Kirehe, Ngoma, Gatsibo, Nyagatare and Rwamagana) face significant and chronic yield losses. The economic impact on the sector is substantial, with cumulative losses estimated to have exceeded USD 1.057 Billion over the post-peak study period (2015–2025).Ultimately, these findings emphasize the systemic nature of climate risks and necessitate a fundamental shift toward AI-driven smart agriculture solutions. This calls for the deployment of IoT sensor networks for real-time field data collection, which, when combined with AI models utilizing Geospatial and Climate Data, can predict crop yields and provide site-specific recommendations on optimal crop types and rotation schedules. These measures are crucial for fortifying climate resilience and ensuring sustainable food security in the face of Rwanda's changing climate.