Beyond deforestation: spatial heterogeneity and supply-chain drivers of terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity footprints of Brazil’s soy

Abstract Decoupling global agricultural trade from biodiversity loss remains critical for international environmental governance. We conducted a spatially explicit life-cycle assessment of 103,310 Brazilian soy supply chains in 2004–2022, covering domestic consumption and exports to estimate terrestrial (TBL) and aquatic (ABL) biodiversity footprints. The soy market caused a TBL of 0.123 PDF·yr and an ABL of 0.601 PDF·yr. China, the EU, and Brazil’s domestic consumption accounted for most of the impacts (80% ABL; 84% TBL). While TBL decreased, due to reduced deforestation in EU-bound trade and China's shift toward less sensitive biomes, ABL has steadily worsened due to synthetic fertiliser use. The framework improves transparency by attributing biodiversity loss to trade routes, supply chain stages, and traders. Our findings suggest that biodiversity governance should account for drivers beyond deforestation and consider spatial heterogeneity in agricultural production and trade, as well as the sensitivity of associated ecosystems, to achieve clean supply chains.