Internet Diffusion and Ecstasy Diffusion Across Countries: The Moderating Role of National Anxiety Prevalence

Abstract This study examines whether internet diffusion is associated with cross-national ecstasy diffusion and whether National Anxiety Prevalence (NAP) conditions that association. Building on an opportunity × vulnerability framework, the study proposes that digital connectivity may expand access to cyber markets, search, coordination, and anonymity, whereas NAP may condition the extent to which online access is associated with coping-oriented demand and illicit participation. Using a country-year panel of 149 countries (1996–2021), the analysis estimates fixed-effects models with country and year effects, clustered standard errors, and an Internet × NAP interaction, alongside economic, institutional, and sociocultural controls. Results indicate a positive association between internet diffusion and ecstasy diffusion, along with a positive interaction between internet diffusion and NAP. Marginal effects suggest that the association between internet diffusion and ecstasy diffusion is weaker at low levels of NAP and stronger at higher levels of NAP. Robustness checks using lags and leads, sensitivity analyses, and nonlinear specifications yield a generally similar interaction pattern. Results from the instrumental-variable specification are directionally consistent, though they should be interpreted with caution. The findings are consistent with viewing technology-enabled illicit-market diffusion as contingent on both digital opportunity and population vulnerability. If corroborated in future research, this perspective may have implications for combining cyber-monitoring with mental-health-informed prevention and early-warning efforts. Graphical evidence also suggests a possible nonlinear association between NAP and ecstasy diffusion. This pattern is exploratory and may point to threshold-like dynamics that warrant further investigation.